Faba Growers are forcing the market to pay — but February will test conviction

Simon Hutt
Dec 21, 2025
3 min read

One of the most defining features of the faba bean market this season hasn’t been a single export sale or price headline — it’s been grower behaviour.

Across NSW, Victoria and South Australia, we’ve seen growers prepared to sit on grain and wait.

That willingness to hold has changed how the market trades, and in recent weeks, buyers have started to respond.

This hasn’t been driven by a sudden shift in global fundamentals. It’s been driven by availability — or more accurately, the lack of freely offered tonnage.

When growers aren’t under pressure, the market has to work harder, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen.

As a result, we’re hearing reports of strong upcountry bids, but there is however, limited evidence of volume trading behind them.

Regional Signals Are Starting to Diverge

In South Australia, particularly through the Mid North and Yorke Peninsula, we’ve seen strong resistance to early selling.

Growers have been comfortable holding stocks, and when export programs have needed coverage, bids have had to lift to attract volume.

That’s translated into firmer tones when buying interest has emerged, even if those windows have been short-lived.

Across Victoria, especially the Wimmera and Mallee, the story has been more mixed - grain is available, but it hasn’t been aggressively marketed.

Feed demand has provided a steady base, and when buyers need nearby coverage, they’ve had to show their hand.

The result has been a market that firms quickly when demand appears, then goes quiet just as fast once it’s satisfied.

In Southern NSW, growers have been particularly selective.

Storage flexibility has allowed many to wait, and we’ve seen very little pressure selling.

Buyers looking to pull grain north or cover domestic feed requirements have found they need to pay up to get movement — especially for clean, executable parcels.

Export Parity Is Still Setting the Anchor

It’s also worth keeping export parity in context.

While domestic pricing is currently trading above parity, that premium is being driven by local conditions — tighter availability, strong nearby demand, and growers holding firm.

Export parity still matters because it sets the anchor point for the market. Without a lift offshore, it becomes harder for buyers to justify paying that domestic premium for long.

That’s why the market hasn’t fully matched our forecasts just yet.

The strength we’re seeing is real, but it’s behavioural rather than structural.

Until export values move, the domestic market is relying on restricted flow to stay elevated — and that’s difficult to sustain indefinitely.

This Is a Market Responding to Discipline, Not Optimism

The recent improvement in bids hasn’t come from speculative enthusiasm. It’s come from practical need.

When exporters have shipping slots or when domestic buyers need coverage, the market lifts — not because sellers are chasing the price, but because they’re controlling the flow.

From our perspective, this is what functional price discovery looks like in a pulse market.

It’s not explosive and it’s not emotional - it’s responsive.

Growers holding the line have forced buyers to price more honestly, and that’s been a net positive for market structure.

February Remains the Pressure Point

Despite the stronger tone, we remain firm in our view that February will test conviction.

Much of the buying we’re seeing now is finite.

Export programs are looking to buy through December and January, with feed buyers also active across that period. Once those needs are met, activity will slow.

That doesn’t mean prices necessarily have to fall — but it does mean bids will thin out, and execution will become harder.

In quieter markets, opportunities don’t disappear, but they become more selective. For growers still needing to move grain, that can narrow options quickly.

This is why we’re cautious about assuming recent strength will simply roll forward.

Markets don’t reward patience indefinitely — they reward patience paired with timing.

Resilience Is a Tool, Not a Strategy on Its Own

Holding grain has worked so far, but resilience isn’t about waiting forever - it’s about recognising when the market is genuinely prepared to pay and responding accordingly.

We’re encouraging growers to think in terms of measured sales — taking advantage of strength while it’s offered, while holding some tonnage for later in the season.

In markets like this, selling nothing can be just as risky as selling too much.