Who Blinks First? Our Faba Guide Moves to $450-460

On 3 September we cut our new-crop guide from the mid-$500's/mt to approximately $500/mt delivered Melbourne and Geelong port zone, on Lithuania's record planted area.

We have since reviewed the first Baltic yields, Lithuanian quality reports, freight to Egypt and domestic bids.

Our new-crop 2026/27 guide is now A$450-460/mt delivered Melbourne and Geelong port zone. We expect it to be reached late in harvest or after it. Egyptian buyers are not paying those levels yet, and early harvest prices may sit well below our range. Last season, growers held off selling below their price targets and forced the market to pay more. In our view, although there are always harvest sellers, reaching our guide this season may depend on the same grower resistance.

Lithuania: Record Area, Yield Estimates Vary

On 3 September GrainSource was first in Australia to report that Lithuania had planted a record bean area. Eurostat puts it at 112,690 ha.

A Baltic grain trader told GrainSource directly on 14 September that early Lithuanian yields were running at 4-6 mt/ha, against a five-year average of 2.61 mt/ha, indicating a crop of 450-678 kmt. On 15 September they added: "We are confident the Lithuanian crop will be a record. The only open question is how large a record." They described the 4-6 mt/ha range as indicative until the bulk of the area is harvested, as prolonged wet weather can affect both the final yield and the human-consumption share.

Lithuania's official forecaster, LAMMC, published its final 2026 yield forecast a week later, on 21 September: 2.7 mt/ha for beans nationally, with Western Lithuania at 2.0 mt/ha, Central at 3.0 mt/ha and Eastern at 2.5 mt/ha.

On the record area that is about 304 kmt.

Lithuania's largest crop since at least 2015 was 256 kmt, in 2025. LAMMC notes its figure is biological yield potential and does not account for weather losses.

When those first yields reached us, our concern was that a crop of that size would drop Australian prices sharply. LAMMC's more recent forecast still points to a record crop and the same pressure on Australian values, but not on the scale the early yields suggested.

The Human-Consumption Share Is Not Yet Known

The same trader also reported that early harvest indicated more than 50% of the crop could meet human-consumption specification, with relatively little pest damage or splitting. PGRO and Askew & Barrett also reported on 16 September that the Baltics escaped the worst of Europe's heat and drought.

Lithuania's agriculture minister, Kęstutis Mažeika, said on 17 September that however, that bean and other spring-crop growers were hit hardest by this season's rain, particularly on the coast and in Žemaitija, with some crops lost and others failing to meet quality. He described the harvest elsewhere as fairly good. Both areas are in Western Lithuania, where LAMMC's yield forecast is lowest.

LAMMC forecasts yield only. The 304 kmt is our calculation from its yield and the Eurostat area. No official production or grade figure has been released.

Egypt has never taken more than 112 kmt from Lithuania in a September-August marketing year. After Lithuania's usual domestic use and exports to other markets, a 50% human-consumption share would leave roughly 92 kmt of human-consumption beans available to Egypt on LAMMC's forecast, and roughly 165-280 kmt on the trade's early yields. On LAMMC's forecast, that is in line with the roughly 90 kmt a year Egypt has taken from Lithuania on average. On the trade's early yields, it is well above anything Egypt has taken before.

UK Supply Is Limited

We reported on 16 August that the UK bean crop was failing. PGRO's 16 September update supports this, and reports that firm UK offers for human consumption are currently non-existent after drought, bruchid damage and shattering. PGRO expect the Baltics to supply most of Europe's beans into North Africa this season.

The Baltics have supplied that market in volume before. Lithuania and Latvia together shipped 199 kmt of faba beans to Egypt in 2023 and 180 kmt in 2024, before falling to 54 kmt in 2025.

Freight to Egypt Has Risen Sharply

Bulk freight from Australia to Egypt, routed around the Cape of Good Hope while the Red Sea is closed, is quoted to us at around US$100/mt. That is up around US$30-40/mt before the closure, however it is down from mid-September.

No faba beans have been discharged at Damietta since 17 August.

Container freight is quoted substantially lower than bulk. We expect exporters to favour containers, shipping smaller parcels earlier, with export demand arriving gradually through the season.

There is no guarantee, though, that containers will be available when they are needed. As one exporter put it to us, the export risk feels like turning up at the airport for a flight you have booked and finding there are no seats available on the plane.

New-Crop Bids

New crop has already traded at A$425/mt port zone. 

Posted new-crop bids are A$425/mt Melbourne and Geelong port zone for December and A$440/mt Clyde for December. In Victoria a single domestic buyer is currently bidding for new crop, and wound back to port its Clyde bid sits roughly level with the port zone bid. Murray Bridge is bid at A$435/mt for November. As an upcountry bid, it is stronger than the port zone bids once freight to port is taken into account.

Large feed buyers tell us A$425/mt port equivalent is the level at which faba beans become worth swapping into their rations. At that level they buy around six months' cover at a fixed price with carry, and do not chase dips.

In our view, domestic feed demand at around A$425/mt port equivalent is setting the floor under new-crop values, and export bids are sitting at that same level.

Offshore, the Australian crop is already being talked up. PGRO's 16 September update describes it as reportedly looking excellent. In our view, reports like this give Egyptian buyers less reason to pay up for Australian beans.

GrainSource View

In our view, new-crop 2026/27 faba beans will reach A$450-460/mt delivered Melbourne and Geelong port zone late in harvest or after it, A$10-35/mt above current new-crop bids.

Egyptian buyers have shown no sign yet of paying up for new crop. Until they do, early harvest prices are likely to sit below our range.

Last season, growers would not sell below their input costs, and that resistance forced the market to pay more, as we reported in December 2025. In our view, reaching A$450-460/mt this season will again depend on growers with storage holding beans until Egyptian buyers lift their bids, and exporters who have sold forward needing to fill vessels. Higher yields lower growers' cost per tonne, which allows them to hold.

Holding also carried a cost last season. Many growers unhappy with the price chose to hang on to their beans and wait. For a lot of them the higher price did not come, and some paid for extra storage and freight to third-party sites while they waited. Whoever held beans also carried the opportunity cost of grain sitting unsold, not turned into cash.

We do not expect values to go much past A$460/mt. A bulk vessel is loaded in several parcels, so if overseas buyers do not want to increase their bids, then exporters may buy split cargos between new crop and then balance with lower-priced old crop, averaging down their cost.

What Would Change Our View

Upside: a low Lithuanian human-consumption share as harvest finishes, freight easing, exporters caught short against a vessel, a weaker Australian dollar, or a damaging southern frost.

Downside: a record Lithuanian crop confirmed with a high human-consumption share and sold into Egypt, freight rising again, feed buyers covering early, or exporters filling vessels with old crop.

Sources

• Freight indication: quoted to GrainSource, not published assessments.

• Trade volumes: Eurostat COMEXT and UN Comtrade, HS 071350. The 112 kmt Lithuania-to-Egypt figure is on September-August marketing years. The Lithuania and Latvia totals are calendar years.

• Lithuanian area and crop history: Eurostat (beans only). First-cut yields and human-consumption share: Baltic trade source, 14 and 15 September 2026. Official yield forecast: LAMMC, 21 September 2026.

• Crop damage: Kęstutis Mažeika, Lithuanian Minister of Agriculture, bernardinai.lt, 17 September 2026. Translation GrainSource.

• UK and European harvest: PGRO / Askew & Barrett Pulse Market Update, 16 September 2026.

• Damietta arrivals: daily Damietta port cargo reports. Frost: Grain Central Daily Market Wire, 18 September 2026.

• Australian bids: GrainSource price page, 21 September 2026, as published. Feed buyer behaviour: large domestic buyers, verbally to GrainSource.

Disclaimer. This report is general market commentary prepared by GrainSource. It is not financial advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Prices quoted are indicative only and change without notice.