ABARES Sep vs Dec Forecast – Lentils & Winter Crop Summary
- Simon Hutt
- Dec 2
- 2 min read
Updated: Dec 2
Overview
The December 2025 ABARES update introduces significant upward revisions compared with the September outlook, driven by improved spring conditions across South Australia and Victoria.
Timely October rainfall and cooler grain‑fill temperatures materially lifted yield expectations.
The largest gain was in lentil production which now forecast at 1.9Mmt nationally, a substantial upgrade from implied September levels and a new Australian record.
We believe these forecasts are problematic for sellers expecting price rises throughout 2026.
Victoria – Upward Revision (+3%)
• December lifts Victoria’s winter crop forecast by ~3% vs September.
• Improved October moisture reversed early crop stress.
• Lentils benefit through higher yield expectations across the Wimmera and Western Districts.
• December lentil forecast:
– Area: 530 kha
– Yield: 1.62 mt/ha
– Production: 860kmt (+32% YoY)
• Implied September lentil forecast ~835–840 kmt.
• Outcome: larger exportable surplus and greater national supply weight.
South Australia – Significant Upward Revision (+10%)
• SA receives a ~10% upward revision vs September.
• October rainfall and mild temperatures improved lentil yield potential across Yorke, Eyre, and the Mid North.
• December lentil forecast:
– Area: 515 kha
– Yield: 1.82 mt/ha
– Production: 937kmt (+69% YoY)
• Implied September lentil forecast ~850–870kmt.
• SA remains the dominant driver of the national uplift in supply.
Western Australia – Broad Upward Revision (+10%)
• WA receives a ~10% upgrade to total winter crops due to strong seasonal conditions.
• While WA is not a major lentil producer, its increased cereal production affects:
– Export capacity allocation
– Domestic freight flows
Strong WA output reinforces overall national oversupply conditions for pulses.
New South Wales – Limited or No Improvement
• NSW experienced persistent September dryness with minimal October recovery.
• No upward revision noted between September and December for key winter crops.
Limited relevance to lentils but minor influence on east‑coast grain balances.
National Summary
• National lentil production now forecast at 1.9 mt (+51% YoY).
• September expectations were materially lower (~1.8 mt implied).
• Upward revisions are heavily concentrated in:
– SA (+10%)
– VIC (+3%)
• Australia moves into a record‑sized lentil supply position with significant surplus to clear.
Conclusion 1 – Market Structure Implications
The December update places Australia firmly into an oversupplied lentil market.
Record production in SA and VIC generates a substantial exportable surplus, amplifying pressure to clear volume through Q1–Q2.
Domestic demand is insufficient to absorb the uplift, shifting pricing power entirely to FOB competitiveness and importer pull.
Without a major demand event from India or Bangladesh, price rallies will be capped, brief, and sentiment‑driven.
Australia is likely to carry substantial inventory into 26/27.
Conclusion 2 – Price Outlook Implications
• National output at 1.9 mt adds significant oversupply risk.
• We expect SA (937kmt) and VIC (860kmt) supply expansions to weigh heavily on bids.
• Grower bids will face downward pressure once pipeline demand is filled.
• FX, freight, and importer caution will directly transmit into exfarm pricing.
• Exporters expected to widen origin spreads to stay competitive into India/MENA.
• Market likely to trade heavy and carry‑driven into late summer.
• Any rallies will be demand‑led, short‑lived, and unlikely to shift overall bearish tone after early February.
• We expect price ceilings to be reduced; oversupply/surplus tonnage will dominate pricing behaviour for months.
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