top of page
Search

Analyst note — Why are faba bean prices lower this year?

  • Writer: Simon Hutt
    Simon Hutt
  • Nov 19
  • 3 min read

Updated: Dec 3

Today we explore the reasons behind this year’s lower prices and analyse the international factors shaping annual domestic price fluctuations.  


Ultimately, the major influence on Australian ex-farm prices is Egyptian demand - the Egyptian export market pricing sets the domestic market benchmark.


We cover the reasons why below.



Background


  • The major Faba Bean producing regions globally include: China, Ethiopia, EU/UK, Black Sea region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan), and Australia. 


  • The production breakdown is (Millions of tonnes):


  • ree

  • Global production of Faba Beans in recent years has been around 6.7 million tonnes annually, however a large proportion of this production is retained for domestic consumption (China, Ethiopia) or has a shrinking export forecast (UK). 


  • Australia’s value lies in premium quality (human consumption), reliable supply, and strong logistics supply chain.



ree


International yield growth and global supply expansion


Global faba bean yields have improved across several major producing regions:


• Europe: UK and France saw 8–15% yield gains due to better spring moisture and lower heat stress.


• China: Expanded area plus stable rainfall supported consistent year-on-year production.


• Ethiopia: Benefited from favourable planting conditions, with national yields trending 5–7% higher.


These improvements increased global exportable surplus and softened international price benchmarks. In order to maintain their international competitiveness, Australian exporters are bidding at lower levels than in recent years.



ree


Export flows to Egypt — detailed trends


Egypt remains the dominant global importer of food-grade faba beans. Recent trade behaviour shows:


• In strong buying years, Egypt imports 500–550 kt annually, with Australia normally supplying 50–70%.


  • Egypt is currently sitting on a surplus of around 170kmt 24/25 Faba Beans.


ree

• This season, Egypt slowed early purchasing due to their strong surplus from 24/25, compounded with FX shortages and credit constraints.


• Increased European availability also diverted regular trade flows: UK and France captured a larger share at lower freight.


• Australia faced delayed contracting windows, contributing to weaker domestic grower bids. 


These shifts resulted in Egyptian buyers spreading their intake more evenly across global suppliers.




Australia's Export Program


  • We have found large discrepancies with previously published figures for Australia’s export volume of Faba Beans, but the general consensus is that recent numbers are falling year-on-year. 


  • It follows the recent struggles Egypt has with a substantial a drop in value of the Egyptian currency and also limited access to $USD.


  • The current surplus in Egypt of 170kmt 24/25 Season Faba Beans is expected to result in a proportional reduction in demand (primarily from Australia) this season.


  • This early lack of interest from Egypt also led some domestic Australian participants to either forward sell DCT, or short the market at very low levels, in the expectation of buying cover at weaker domestic prices.


  • We have seen some of this trade level covering create short term price spikes in the North to close out positions or fulfil DCT obligations. The Southern markets are still yet to get into the full swing of harvest.


  • This reduced export demand is one of the major influences in the drop in ex-farm prices this season.



Domestic Pricing Analyst Forecast


Near term: 


  • We have seen, and will continue to see short term (1-2 month) price spikes in various regions of low supply and high demand, as well as exporters looking for early cover. 


  • These price opportunities for early sellers will continue, until domestic demand (either spot purchases or buying on spreads) and international export requirements are covered by early 2026. 


  • We then expect a general price weakness after the holiday period, and lack of activity.



6-12 Month outlook: 


  • On the export side, unless Egyptian purchasing can recover (FX & $USD availability), and/or neighbour supply tightens, we believe that the mid season domestic pricing will struggle to find any upward momentum. 


  • We have previously covered the domestic price price drivers (lack of sellers, extended drought, record lamb prices, replacement for soymeal), however the majority of these domestic needs should have been covered with spreads by the end of January.


  • Certain areas of low supply and high demand may be able to drip feed the domestic markets at a premium to areas with an oversupply


  • We believe that it is unlikely that any general demand through this period will substantially move the needle on pricing.







 
 
 

Comments

bottom of page