Fabas 2026/27: Egypt Has Options. Growers May Be Left Holding Again.
Simon Hutt | October 2026 | 7 min read
On 22 September we moved our new-crop guide to A$450-460mt delivered Melbourne and Geelong port zone, and said reaching it may depend on growers holding beans until Egyptian buyers lift their bids.
We have reviewed the return holding faba beans delivered last season, the Latvian crop, and how much room Egypt has this season for Baltic beans.
Our price guide is unchanged.
Unless Egyptian buyers meet growers at a realistic level, fewer Australian beans will leave the country this season. With 26/27 harvest forecasts remaining firmly in the mid-800kmt nationally, and shipping rates creating an international pricing mis-match, growers risk being left holding the surplus again.
Holding past harvest paid off for some
Last season bids rose through harvest and January as exporters filled bulk vessels. They peaked from late April to June on secondary bulk demand, then fell away once Egypt had its own crop.
Growers who sold into that peak did well, but they were a relatively small share of those holding. As in any market, only a few sellers catch the top.
We understand that in many cases, domestic feed bids provided better returns throughout the year, however they generally could not handle large volumes. We also find that many growers who held past the (export price) peak are still holding.
As #1 bids delivered Melbourne are currently below last December's $440/mt, and forward bids for this December are lower again - for those growers, a season of holding has returned close to nothing.
We believe this season will follow a similar pattern.
What Sits Behind the Headline Bid
The numbers above are headline bids. What each was worth to an individual grower depended on its terms and on where the beans were stored. We made this point in December 2025 and again in March 2026, and it holds again this season: in some cases a lower bid is worth more to the grower once its terms are counted.
The terms that most often change a grower's net return are:
Location is the clearest example.
Portland generally pays around $20/mt above Melbourne and Geelong. One reason is that at least one exporter owns their storage infrastructure, which lowers its costs, but for many growers Portland is a longer cart, so the premium has to cover more freight.
The reverse also holds. An as-harvested bid or a flexible delivery window lets a grower move beans when freight is cheapest and pick up return loads where they can. That saving can be worth more than the gap in headline price.
The feed market is currently setting the price floor
Port bids for #1 are sitting around feed values, with feed buyers working back to about $435/mt port equivalent. That is also close to where we estimate many growers will start selling.
We lifted to that estimate by $20 in August on higher domestic input costs. Brent crude now above US$100 a barrel and the RBA's rise to 4.60% on 29 September have added to costs since.
Yield matters as much as the bid.
Example:
2.5mt/ha and $460/mt a hectare grosses $1,150 before costs.
4.0mt/ha and $420/mt a hectare grosses $1,680 before costs. A return of $530/ha more for a $40mt lower bid.
For domestic bids to move higher, Egyptian buyers have to lift their prices to cover the increased shipping costs. For now they are bidding cautiously while they wait to see how the Australian and Baltic crops turn out.
Egyptian traders tell us that if the price gap to Baltic beans is too wide, buying Australian beans in volume becomes untenable.
That makes the Baltic crop the question that matters.
Latvia has sown a record too
Our 22 September report covered Lithuania's record 112,690ha and LAMMC's 2.7mt/ha yield forecast.
Latvia, the other Baltic supplier to Egypt, has also sown a record: 49,600ha, 24% above its previous high in 2018, on Eurostat data updated 28 September.
No Latvian yield forecast has been published. Its five-year average is 2.72mt/ha, close to LAMMC's figure for Lithuania.
How many Baltic beans could reach Egypt
After what they use at home and sell to other markets, Lithuania and Latvia could have about 281kmt of exportable beans for Egypt on LAMMC's yield, or around 141kmt if only half makes food grade, the trade's early indication.
Egypt has only taken an average of 151kmt a season from the two over the last five seasons, but the pricing gap to Australian beans could push this figure much higher this season.
It is important to note that these are the maximum tonnages that could be exported. Last season, on the same basis, Lithuania had 136kmt available and shipped Egypt 31kmt from September to July.
The worst case for Australian exports
Egypt took an average of 426kmt a season of Australian faba beans over the five seasons to 2024/25, 74% of everything Australia exported.
This season three things change how many Australian beans Egypt needs:
UK gap, +28kmt. UK shipments to Egypt were 27.7kmt last season, and PGRO reports firm UK human-consumption offers are "currently non-existent".
Egyptian surplus, -100kmt. Our estimate of the surplus beans Egypt is carrying into the season. In an average year Egypt has a much lower surplus to draw on (not withstanding last years 170kmt surplus), so its demand for imports is lower this season.
Extra Baltic beans, -56kmt to -186kmt. Lithuanian and Latvian tonnage available for Egypt above a normal year, depending on yield and grade.
The chart below is an extreme and unlikely case, but we have presented it to frame the situation.
It assumes Egyptian buyers take every available Baltic bean before any Australian ones. In practice they value Australian beans for their quality, and there is always a need for them.
In this case, Australian exports to Egypt would fall by 143-213kmt from an average season, or 34-50%, on LAMMC's yield. At the low end, with only food-grade Baltic beans competing, Australia would ship about the same as last season. At the high end, with every grade competing, it would ship about 70kmt less again: 213kmt total, against an average season of 426kmt.
The extra 70kmt is measured against last season, not an average year. Against an average year the high end is 213kmt down, which the sentence carries through the 426kmt comparison.
Against last season, Egypt has more room
Against last season the picture is more balanced. Egypt carried around 170kmt into 2025/26, against an estimated 100kmt this season, and the UK's 28kmt is gone.
That gives Egypt roughly 100kmt more room for Baltic beans before it needs fewer Australian ones.
From September to July last season, Lithuania and Latvia shipped Egypt 149kmt and Australia shipped 282kmt.
This season the Baltic could ship around 250kmt and leave Australia's volume no lower than last season. Food-grade Baltic beans, about 141kmt, fit well inside that. All grades, about 281kmt, would run beyond it, so the Baltic grade decides which.
Against last season, then, this is not as bad as it looks for Australia, except for freight. Bulk freight to Egypt has risen sharply, as we reported on 22 September, and that comes straight off what Egyptian buyers can pay for Australian beans.
Last season's volume was also a low one: the 282kmt compares with an average of 426kmt a season over the five seasons to 2024/25, with August still to be reported.
Pace matters as well as volume. Container freight is quoted well below bulk, so we expect exporters to favour containers, and Australia cannot pack containers as fast as bulk vessels load.
As in previous seasons, the window for marketing larger parcels into bulk export closes at the end of January.
GrainSource View
In our view, Australia 2026/27 is shaping up much like 2025/26.
The difference is a record Baltic crop. Against last season, much of it is offset by Egypt's smaller surplus and the absence of UK beans, but dearer freight to Egypt works against Australian beans.
Growers enter harvest with higher costs, and feed buyers are currently working back to around $435/mt port equivalent. Our guide of A$450-460/mt delivered Melbourne and Geelong port zone depends on Egyptian buyers lifting their bids late in harvest or after it.
Unless Egypt can buy the volume they need at at lower price point, they will need to raise their bids to meet growers at a realistic level. If they are not willing to do that, then they will choose the alternative of buying cheaper Baltic origin beans. If this happens, then the export demand for Australian beans could be vastly reduced, and many growers who miss the available domestic bids at harvest (and will be competing to sell their new crop against cheaper old crop offers) may be left holding again.
Last season the domestic feed market could not take anywhere near the volume on offer, and we expect a repeat of that pattern this season and to a greater degree.
What would change our view
Upside: A Lithuanian human-consumption share well below 50% once grade data is published, a drop in shipping costs for Q1 2027, or a weaker Australian dollar.
Downside: Baltic yields above LAMMC's 2.7mt/ha, a human-consumption share above 50%, or even higher bulk or container freight to Egypt.
Sources
Crop areas: Eurostat crop statistics apro_cpsh1, updated 28 September 2026. Lithuanian yield forecast: LAMMC, 21 September 2026. Human-consumption share: Baltic trade source, 14 and 15 September 2026.
Trade volumes: UN Comtrade exporter declarations, HS 071350, monthly, September-August marketing years. UK 2025-26: HMRC. UK offers: PGRO / Askew & Barrett Pulse Market Update, 16 September 2026.
Australian bids and offers: broker market sheets, October 2025 to September 2026. Storage costs: GrainCorp 2025/26 pulse storage and handling rates. Cash rate: Reserve Bank of Australia, 29 September 2026.
Egyptian surplus, grower selling level and Baltic tonnage for Egypt: GrainSource estimates. Egyptian trade feedback: verbally to GrainSource.
Disclaimer. This report is general market commentary prepared by GrainSource. It is not financial advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Prices quoted are indicative only and change without notice.
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