June ABARES - Interactive Map

GrainSource Analyst Report — responds to ABARES Australian Crop Report, June 2026 (opening forecast for the 2026/27 season)

Please click on the map below for a detailed summary of ABARES forecasts

ABARES has put its first number on the 2026/27 winter crop, and the headline isn't the size of the crop. It's the shape of it.

ABARES forecasts wheat plantings at 10.93Mha, down from 12.41Mha reported for 2025/26 in March. Chickpea plantings are down even harder — 732k ha against 1.12Mha, a 51% fall in forecast production to 1.08Mmt. Canola and barley are also down, 20% and 14% respectively on production.

Lentils, lupins, field peas and oats point the other way — up 4–9% on production. ABARES doesn't say why growers are pulling back on wheat, canola and especially chickpeas while holding or lifting pulse and oat plantings — but the pattern itself is the story.

In our view, it's consistent with growers protecting rotation value: pulling back from wheat, canola and chickpeas - the last despite, or perhaps because of, its record 2025/26 return - while holding or lifting plantings of lentils, lupins, field peas and oats.

This is a read on the numbers, not a confirmed grower survey, and we would not overweight it yet.

A word of caution on the comparison itself. June is ABARES' opening forecast for a season that has only just gone into the ground, while March was its near-final estimate for a season already harvested.

Comparing the two always produces a bigger swing than growers' plantings or yields are actually moving — this happens every June, not just this one. We would not trade off a first-forecast number for chickpeas the way we would trade off a March actual.

Treat this release as the opening line, not the settled position.

Faba beans are the one crop here we already have a live view on. ABARES' 875kmt forecast (443kha) confirms the yield-led 14% pull-back from last season's record we flagged in our 24 July deep dive — plantings are flat, so this is a return-to-trend yield call, not a grower retreat.

**See "Fabas 2026/27: Europe Will Break the Stalemate" for the updated full pricing view

GrainSource View

We read this release as ABARES confirming a rotation story more than a production story.

Growers are shifting plantings toward pulses and oats and away from chickpeas specifically — plausibly chickpeas' own strong 2025/26 season pulling them toward diversification rather than a repeat bumper crop.

Wheat and canola softness looks more like normal season-opening conservatism than a genuine retreat.

We would not price any of these forecasts — chickpeas included — as settled until the September update narrows the range.

Growers holding old-crop chickpeas or lentils on the back of this release have, in our view, more reason to hold their nerve than to react to a single opening number.

Forecast

1. Chickpeas: plantings down sharply on ABARES' opening call; treat as the season's most tentative number until spring.

   
   

2. Pulses and oats broadly: plantings holding or lifting — consistent with a rotation story, worth re-testing at the September release.

   
   

3. Faba beans: yield-led pull-back, plantings flat, mid-$500's/mt destination intact.

   
   

4. Next data point: ABARES' September 2026 Crop Report, the first real read on how the new season is establishing.

Source: ABARES Australian Crop Report, June 2026 and March 2026 (State Data Underpinning workbooks). All figures are ABARES forecasts/estimates, not actuals. This report is general information only. It does not constitute financial, investment or marketing advice, and does not take into account the objectives or circumstances of any individual grower or buyer. Seek independent advice before making selling or purchasing decisions.